Introduction
In the first of this 2 part article I looked at success
rates, fatality rates and the implications of going with the wrong team. In
this article I am now looking at what the 2014 tragedy may mean for the 2015
season.
2014
The tragedy on Everest in 2014 led to the South side
effectively being closed. There was a lot of confusion about whether Climbing
Sherpas were willing to continue working, whether they feared to step foot in
The Khumbu Icefall, or whether they feared that there might be repercussions because
of threats from the militant Sherpas who were holding the government, the
Westerners, and therefore the mountain, to ransom.
This article is not about the tragedy, the cause or the
aftermath; it is not about the morality of having Climbing Sherpas working for
teams on Everest; and it is not about the working relationship between
companies, their staff and their 'rich' Western clients (although I do touch on
this briefly). This is about the implications for the forthcoming season(s) on
Everest and what the future might hold for an entire community who are so
reliant on trekking and expeditions as their major source of income.
The differences between S & N
There are two main sides to Everest for aspiring clients
who want to climb to its summit. There is the South (Nepalese) side of the
mountain and the North (Tibetan) side. Amongst a lot of the big companies the
South has been long been favoured due to a number of factors –
·
it is easier to descend from Base Camp (5,250m)
to lower elevations (4,400m and lower) for periods of rest whilst waiting for
the weather;
·
it is warmer than the North side. There isn’t
that much temperature difference at night as they are both chilly places to be,
but by day Camp 2 (South side) and ABC (North side) whilst both being at 6,400m
are drastically different - at C2 (S) you can be in a
t-shirt during the day whereas
at ABC (N) you may well be eating lunch whilst shivering away in your down
jacket;
·
the respective camps on the mountain are
situated at lower elevations (Camp 1 - 6,000m (S) vs 7,100m (N), C2 - 6,400m vs
7,500m, C3 - 7,100m vs 7,900m and Top Camp 7,950m vs 8,300m);
·
it is not without its tricky sections but on The
South side there is less technical terrain and less objective danger on summit
day;
·
despite there being a higher elevation gain on
summit day from the South it is easier to descend back down to the comparative
safety of The South Col and lower elevations – this is particularly relevant if
there is a rescue scenario;
·
and lastly there is the possibility of
helicopter evacuation of a sick or injured climber / Sherpa out of The Western
Cwm to Kathmandu.
The North side Base Camp is typically reached by jeep,
which makes it harder to acclimatise to the rarefied atmosphere, but it also
means that it is cheaper to supply logistically (tonnes of food can be brought
in by truck instead of employing teams of porters to carry loads from the
airfield at Lukla to the Nepalese Base Camp which is a 10 to 12 day round
trip). To that end the North side has the advantage of being cheaper (partly
because of the cheaper climbing permit and partly because of the cheaper
logistics) and the North side doesn't have the objective danger posed by the,
now infamous, Khumbu Icefall in which 16 Climbing Sherpas lost their lives on
18th April 2014. Being cheaper does have its drawbacks though as you tend to
get some people there who are going purely based on price rather than having done
their research and due diligence.
Credit notes
Despite assurances from the Ministry of Tourism that
expedition permits would be carried forward and be valid for 5 years it would
appear that only the permit, and not the
individual places, will actually be credited against expeditions in the
near future. (This is still subject to clarification but it would seem to be
the case).
By playing with words the Ministry of Tourism have
managed to wangle their way out of a commitment that everyone believed was in
place as they departed Base Camp empty handed at the end of last season. This
emergency measure was put in place to appease the expedition members, leaders,
Sirdars and Climbing Sherpas and was supposed to go some way towards smoothing
things over. The fact that things had already gotten well out of control due to
their inaction in the first place is another matter – but suffice to say that a
letter was produced showing a commitment to carry forward the permits for the
next 5 years.
Understandably there were those of us who were sceptical
at the time but carrying on had become an untenable situation.
The fact that a lady summited the mountain with
helicopter support up to C2 and evacuation back again from The Western Cwm does
not mean that the mountain had always been open – which is what the MoT are
trying to say as a justification for why they have changed their tune.
Anger all round
The Sherpas were representing their concerns to the
government regarding, amongst other things, insurance payouts and the future
welfare of the families that are left behind. Meanwhile the Western companies
were representing their concerns to the Ministry of Tourism to try and make
sure that they (The Climbing Sherpas) don’t die in the first place.
Due to the dynamic nature of the Khumbu Icefall it is
almost impossible to create a health and safety document or do an in depth risk
assessment, but that is what we are endeavouring to put forward. We are looking
at better protocols for fixing ropes and ladders as well as better training for
the Icefall Doctors and Climbing Sherpas alike. The use of helicopters is being
proposed for taking essential freight to C2 at the beginning of the season to
minimise the loads that need to be carried, and therefore reduce the journeys
that are made through the Khumbu Icefall. And we are looking to be allowed to
store freight at Camp 2 between seasons – again to minimise the journeys that
have to be made through the icefall at the beginning and end of each season.
Perversely the Sherpas are concerned that these last two
measures will mean less work for them and therefore less pay.
International opinion
Obviously there were the angry voices out there (mainly
non-mountaineers and office or couch bound self-proclaimed aficionados on all
matters relating to Everest) who claimed that the fallout had been a long time
coming and that this was payback time for the years of abuse and lack of
respect that we had given our Climbing Sherpas. This is simply not true and,
indeed, anyone who has trekked or been on expedition with the Climbing Sherpas
will have come away with a profound respect for them and have been humbled in
their presence. Many people are so taken with the whole life changing
experience that they sponsor Sherpa children through boarding school or stay
connected with their Sherpas for life.
And then there was the matter of wealth and fatness that
was brought in to the fray. How anyone decides to spend their well earned ££s
is entirely their business. Please don’t cycle in to work on your £3.5k+
roadbike and preach from your £2k+ MacBook Pro 15" with Retina Display
about how anyone else can spend their money. And as far as clients being fat /
unfit / technically inept … well admittedly there will always be those there
who shouldn’t be there (why were they accepted by their company?) but generally
speaking most clients on Everest have been not only saving for years but also training
for years and have many expeditions under their collective harnesses.
By all means remind me of the David Sharp (North side, solo,
no Sherpa, no radio, Asian Trekking client) and Shriya Shah-Klorfine (South
side, very little oxygen, inexperienced, poor Sherpa support, Utmost Adventure
client) type clients and I will hand you a list as long as your arm of people
who summited in great style who were experienced climbers and approached the
mountain with due caution and due diligence.
And in a sense I will also agree with you about the
Sharp’s and Shriya’s of the world – they should not have been there; or should
have been trained and mentored and looked after better; or perhaps advised to
either not come at all; or perhaps come in a few years’ time. But they are a
fact of life that gives Everest a really bad name.
Piano lessons
Anyone in their right mind who wanted to do anything
remotely risky would probably get themselves trained to the appropriate level.
A person who wanted to do freefall parachute jumps would probably start with
static line, progress to tandem and then on to freefall. A wannabe scuba diver
would do a PADI* course and build up their log book experience before
committing to a complex wreck dive at 45m. Indeed even with less risky
activities lessons and experience count for a lot – from driving a car to
riding a horse, from learning the piano to flying a plane. Mountain biking,
rock climbing, kayaking, being a doctor, speaking a foreign language – years of
experience is the key.
(*it should be pointed out that other branded courses are
also available).
So why is it that there is a perception that you can just
turn up and have a go on Everest? The fact that some chap, who was apparently a
non-climber, did it one year doesn’t mean that other non-climbers can do it in
the future. Maybe he had actually done more training than he admitted to. Perhaps
he was naturally predisposed to being good at altitude. Maybe he was with a
very good outfit and had plenty of oxygen and lots of support. Maybe the
weather was great or, indeed, perhaps he was just plain lucky. But whatever you
do don’t then assume that you can sign up with a crap company, with little or
no experience, with little or no oxygen and attempt to get to the summit –
because you can’t do that without endangering your life and the lives of
everyone around you. And that includes endangering people from other teams (because
of your suspect practices and lack of competence) or endangering the lives of
the Climbing Sherpas who may well be coming to try and help you down.
Any skills that are required to attempt Everest should be
part of your muscle memory and, in a sense, shouldn’t require much in the way
of thought processes. Adapting to the ever changing weather, environment and
conditions should come naturally from years and years of experience on other
hills and mountains.
Next season.
So let’s look in to the crystal ball and see what is
going to happen next season. It’s obviously impossible because of the variables
to be clear and concise about what will and what won’t happen; what will be in
place and whether it will make a difference; how the conditions on the mountain
will affect the general situation etc etc.
Some future clients will be concerned that there may be a
repeat closure on the South side and that no refunds will be given. So what
does the future hold for Everest?
As mentioned earlier it would appear that when a permit
is cashed in then it is cashed in and individual places will not then be
carried forward. Some of the 2014 clients will undoubtedly not come back -
their time was 2014 and they have had their chance to climb (or not as the case
may be) and have gone home empty handed, never to return. The majority, I
suspect, will see Everest as unfinished business and will be back in the
future. Whether 2015 will be an option partly depends on whether their team
permit is being cashed in and their ability to justify the expense (and get
time off work) so soon - as well as the gamble and hope that the next season
won't be interrupted.
If it is the case that when a permit is cashed in then it’s
cashed in then maybe some 2014 clients will feel impelled to try again in 2015
because they don’t want to lose out on the US$10,000 credit note. Others, who
cannot raise the funds that quickly, are going to have to accept that they will
have to start all over again.
Suffice to say that there are a few scenarios that can be
mooted. Presuming that people will not be put off all together I foresee, in no
particular order, the following permutations:
Busier North side, roughly the same numbers, or
quieter, for the South side.
Due to the problems with the mountain closure in 2014
there may well be a migration of clients to The North who would otherwise have
gone South. Their time is 2015 and they have everything lined up for that
season and for whatever reason(s) would not want to delay another year – but
they may hedge their bets by going North to avoid the scandalous situation that
occurred in 2014.
To that end there may be hugely reduced numbers for the
South (some going North – some not coming in 2015 as they had originally hoped)
being joined by a number of people who were there this year cashing in their
peak permit credit note.
Result – Bearing in mind that the North side summit day
is so much more hazardous than the South summit day there will inevitably be
far more deaths on the North side as a result of increased numbers.
Busier North side and busier South side
Again there may be a migration of some potential Southerners
to the North side as well as a lot of people from 2014 returning for unfinished
business on the South side. Depending on who goes where it may well be the case
that both North and South will be busier as a result.
Result - more deaths on both sides (more so North) but
potentially record numbers summiting as well. Expect long queues … depending on
weather windows.
Same, same
Some people put off all together.
Some migration Northwards.
Some repeats coming back.
Result - a standard season (although, again, possibly a
bit busier on the North side).
Busier North, another interrupted season on The South
Again there may be a migration of some potential
Southerners to the North side as well as an interrupted season on The South.
The militant faction of Climbing Sherpas (who,
incidentally, were from outside The Khumbu) may try and stir things up again.
This would be financial suicide for the South side
because the 2016 season, and beyond, will dry up as a result. The Khumbu is hugely
dependent not only on the seasonal trekkers but also the expeditions for April
and May (as well as the Oct / Nov season – but teams don’t tend to do Everest post
monsoon).
The Khumbu community have never really been politicised
because there’s always been a steady flow of income from trekkers and
expeditions and as a result have never had any Maoist tendencies. But when they
were listening to the politically motivated shop steward types, and cheering
for them, they were in effect voting for these people to be their (self-appointed)
spokesmen. They (The Khumbu Climbing Sherpas) are probably regretting that decision
ever since because they have kids in boarding schools in Kathmandu, they have
loans on teahouses, they have bills to pay and they didn’t get their full pay
for the season and they didn’t get their summit bonuses.
Business is business and it’s open as usual.
Whilst trekking out this year it was patently obvious
that most of the lodge owners (many of whom have previously summited Everest)
were very concerned about the repercussions for future seasons in The Khumbu. Unlike
the militant Sherpas who stirred the whole crazy mess up in the first place
they are businessmen and businesswomen who understand their demographic.
Without trekkers and mountaineers there will be insufficient funds coming in to
the region to support the various strings of the local economy. The region is
already over-subscribed with teahouses and, as mentioned already, many Sherpas
have children who are at boarding schools in Kathmandu. The local economy has
been rocked by the early departure of teams this year and if it happens again
the consequences will be very far reaching.
I expect that, having only received 1/2 to 2/3 of their
regular pay, a lot of families will now be wondering ‘now what?’
Never mind the US$3 million or so that the Ministry of
Tourism collects in peak permits - that is nothing compared to the in excess of
US$12 million that pours in to the region during the Spring season as a result
of trekkers and Everest expeditions. Even the porters from outside the region
are spending almost half of their daily pay to live in The Khumbu. This is
basic economics and everyone will suffer if there is a problem – from the
vegetable seller in Namche Bazaar to the teahouse owner in Dingboche, from the
person who sells NCell mobile top up cards to the bakery owner in Pangboche they
are all hoping for a trouble free season.
To that end I think it is very unlikely that the 2015
season will be interrupted and, if it is, then I imagine that the course of
events will not result in closure as happened this season.
Watch this space.
See also:
as well as:
And lastly, for more information about what skills are required then have a look at this page of suggestions as well as some notes on how to use jumars on fixed ropes.